US Meals and Soups Market 2026: A $70 Billion Category Growing at Less Than Half Its Pandemic Rate

The US meals and soups market reaches an estimated $70.0 billion in 2026. Meal kits, which grew 28% a year through the pandemic, are now forecast at under 5%. Chilled formats are the one part of the market outgrowing their categories.

Between 2019 and 2023, US meal kit sales grew at 28.0% a year. Through 2028 they are forecast to grow at 4.6%. That is a fall of 23.4 percentage points in the growth rate of the category that defined convenience food during the pandemic.

The wider meals and soups market followed the same shape at a gentler angle, from 9.1% a year to 3.9%. In 2026 it reaches an estimated $70.0 billion, up from $63.3 billion in 2023.

Growth has not stopped. It has moved. Chilled formats are expanding faster than their categories in ready meals, soup and food kits alike, while the frozen and shelf stable formats that carried the pandemic are slowing hardest.

Figures in this article cover the United States. The 2025, 2026 and 2027 values are estimates calculated by Bridging Local.

The US Meals and Soups Market Reaches $70.0 Billion in 2026

Total US meals and soups sales are estimated at $70.05 billion in 2026, rising from $64.92 billion in 2024 and heading to a published forecast of $75.59 billion in 2028.

Growth Has Fallen From 9.1% to 3.9% a Year

Every category in the market is growing more slowly than it did between 2019 and 2023. The size of the slowdown varies enormously.

The categories that grew fastest are decelerating hardest. Meal kits, food kits and chilled ready meals occupied the top three positions for growth between 2019 and 2023 and now occupy the top three positions for deceleration. Soup, the slowest growing category then, is the least affected now.

Meal Kits Decelerated From 28.0% to 4.6%

Meal kits reached an estimated $8.57 billion in 2026, within the $14.12 billion food kits category. The category grew from $2.94 billion in 2019 to $7.89 billion in 2023, nearly tripling in four years.

Chilled lunch kits are now forecast to grow faster than meal kits, at 5.7% against 4.6% through 2028. In the 2019 to 2023 period meal kits grew at more than four times the chilled lunch kit rate. The ordering has reversed.

Delivery meal kits benefited most during the pandemic, with HelloFresh and Home Chef taking the largest gains. Post-pandemic the value proposition has weakened. Blue Apron, the former category leader, has seen revenue, active customers and order volume decline year over year in North America, and HelloFresh has faced similar pressure.

Ready Meals Remain the Largest Category at $30.2 Billion

Ready meals are estimated at $30.21 billion in 2026, 43.1% of the total meals and soups market. Frozen ready meals account for $22.14 billion of that, or 73.3% of the category.

Stouffer's leads the category with $1.73 billion in sales and 6.2% share, followed by Jimmy Dean at 4.4% and Kraft at 4.0%. Marie Callender's and Hot Pockets each hold 3.3%. Private label holds 10.0%, larger than any individual brand.

Chilled ready meals carry the most new product and new brand activity in the category. Kevin's Natural Meals, a paleo and keto positioned chilled line that launched through e-commerce, was acquired by Mars.

Chilled Formats Outgrow Frozen and Shelf Stable in Every Category

Across ready meals, soup and pizza, the chilled format grows faster than the category it sits in. The pattern holds in all three.

Chilled soup is the fastest growing format in the entire dataset at 6.2% through 2028, reaching an estimated $878 million in 2026. Chilled ready meals grow at 5.1% and chilled lunch kits at 5.7%. Each outpaces its parent category.

Shelf stable formats are the slowest across the board. Shelf stable soup grows at 2.9% and shelf stable ready meals at 2.7%, both below their category rates. Shelf stable offerings carry a perception of inferior quality, excessive processing and poor nutritional value, and that perception now affects both soup and ready meals.

The one exception to the chilled rule. Chilled pizza grows at 1.5% against 4.0% for frozen pizza, the only category where chilled underperforms. Chilled pizza is also tiny, at an estimated $233 million against $7.67 billion frozen. Frozen pizza has absorbed the premiumisation activity in this category instead, with entries from Tillamook, Rao's and Screamin' Sicilian.

Prepared Salads Are the Fastest Growing Category at 5.2%

Prepared salads reach an estimated $11.41 billion in 2026, the third largest category and the fastest growing of the five through 2028 at 5.2%. The category grew 10.9% a year between 2019 and 2023.

Percentage growth and dollar growth rank differently. Prepared salads grow fastest at 5.2% and add $2.83 billion between 2023 and 2028. Ready meals grow at half that rate and add $4.12 billion, more than any other category. Food kits add $2.91 billion.

Soup adds $1.01 billion, the smallest contribution of the five. Per capita consumption of store-bought soup has declined steadily over the years and, after a brief pandemic rise, is set to continue downward. New product lines, varieties and health positioning have not lifted the category.

Private Label Holds More Share Than Any Single Manufacturer

Private label accounts for 14.5% of US meals and soups sales, well ahead of Nestlé at 9.7% and HelloFresh at 7.8%.

Private label strength is concentrated where the market is largest. In ready meals private label holds 10.0%, in soup 17.5% and in pizza 16.6%. Inflation-driven trading down has moved shoppers toward retailer brands, and chains including Aldi, Trader Joe's and Costco have built enough brand trust that shoppers treat the retailer itself as a lifestyle brand.

Walmart's position in ready meals, through its Marketside and Great Value lines, is described as a real competitive threat to Nestlé and ConAgra. Immediate access to shopper data gives retailer brands the ability to pivot faster than national brands can.

E-commerce Reached 21.6% of Sales While Supermarkets Lost Share

Offline retail accounted for 78.4% of US meals and soups sales in 2023, down from 84.0% in 2019. The remainder, 21.6%, moved online, up from 16.0%.

Working from the reported shares, online sales grew at approximately 17.6% a year between 2019 and 2023, faster than any offline channel. Supermarkets fell from 34.5% to 31.7% of sales and hypermarkets from 35.4% to 33.5%, though both grew in absolute terms at 6.8% and 7.6% a year respectively.

Small local grocers grew fastest among offline channels at 12.2% a year, lifting their share from 3.2% to 3.6%. Discounters grew 9.1%, matching the overall market rate and holding share at 2.6%. General merchandise stores declined 3.0% a year and direct selling 11.7%.

Only 32 of 5,620 New Launches Were Reformulations

US manufacturers launched 5,620 meals and soups products between 2019 and 2023. Launch volume fell from 1,328 in 2019 to 908 in 2022 before recovering to 1,132 in 2023.

Range extensions accounted for 2,333 launches, 41.5% of the total. Genuinely new products accounted for 1,304, or 23.2%. New packaging accounted for 1,191, or 21.2%. New formulations accounted for 32, or 0.6%.

Across five years and more than five thousand launches, fewer than seven products a year involved reformulating an existing recipe. Innovation in this market is overwhelmingly about range, format and packaging rather than about changing what is in the pack.

Microwaveable was the most common claim, appearing on 2,937 launches, 52.3% of the total. Ease of use followed at 1,722 and no additives or preservatives at 1,699. Two ethical claims, environmentally friendly packaging at 1,627 and recycling at 1,490, both rank above gluten free at 1,065.

Nestlé led launch volume with 245 products, followed by Aldi at 225 and H-E-B at 210. Three of the top ten launching companies are retailers, and Aldi, H-E-B, Giant Eagle, Kroger, Walmart, Trader Joe's and Whole Foods together account for 1,111 launches, more than the top three manufacturers combined.

Retailers are out-launching manufacturers. Seven retailers in the top ten launched 1,111 products between 2019 and 2023. Nestlé, ConAgra and Campbell together launched 601. In a market where private label already holds more share than any single manufacturer, retailers are also setting the pace on new product activity.

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Frequently Asked Questions

How big is the US meals and soups market in 2026?

The US meals and soups market is estimated at $70.05 billion in 2026, up from $63.30 billion in 2023 and heading to a forecast $75.59 billion by 2028. Ready meals are the largest category at an estimated $30.21 billion, followed by food kits at $14.12 billion, prepared salads at $11.41 billion, pizza at $7.90 billion and soup at $6.40 billion. The 2026 figure is an estimate interpolated from published 2024 and 2028 values.

Is the meal kit market still growing?

Yes, but far more slowly. US meal kits grew at 28.0% a year between 2019 and 2023, reaching $7.89 billion. Through 2028 they are forecast to grow at 4.6%, a fall of 23.4 percentage points and the steepest deceleration of any category in the market. Chilled lunch kits are now forecast to grow faster than meal kits, at 5.7%. Former category leader Blue Apron has seen revenue, customers and orders decline year over year in North America.

Which US convenience food category is growing fastest?

By growth rate, prepared salads lead at 5.2% a year through 2028, followed by food kits at 4.8%, pizza at 3.9%, ready meals at 3.0% and soup at 3.3%. By dollar contribution the ranking differs: ready meals add $4.12 billion between 2023 and 2028, more than any other category, followed by food kits at $2.91 billion and prepared salads at $2.83 billion. At format level, chilled soup is the fastest growing line in the market at 6.2%.

Who leads the US ready meals and soups market?

Private label holds the largest position at 14.5% of sales, ahead of any individual company. Nestlé leads manufacturers at 9.7%, followed by HelloFresh at 7.8%, Kraft Heinz at 7.0%, ConAgra at 6.0% and Campbell Soup at 4.5%. Private label share is highest in soup at 17.5%, followed by pizza at 16.6% and ready meals at 10.0%.

Why are chilled ready meals growing faster than frozen?

Chilled formats outgrow their categories across ready meals, soup and food kits. Chilled ready meals grow at 5.1% against 3.0% for frozen, chilled soup at 6.2% against 2.9% for shelf stable, and chilled lunch kits at 5.7% against 4.6% for meal kits. Shelf stable products in particular carry a perception of inferior quality, excessive processing and weaker nutrition. Chilled ready meals also attract the most new brand and new product activity in the category.

How much of the US meals and soups market is sold online?

Online accounted for 21.6% of US meals and soups sales in 2023, up from 16.0% in 2019, implying growth of roughly 17.6% a year. Offline retail fell from 84.0% to 78.4% over the same period. Supermarkets fell from 34.5% to 31.7% of sales and hypermarkets from 35.4% to 33.5%, though both grew in absolute terms. Small local grocers grew fastest among offline channels at 12.2% a year.

About This Analysis

This analysis was produced by Bridging Local (RC Research & Insights Inc.), a Vancouver-based market research and business consulting firm, using market data published through Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. We run primary research across B2B and B2C markets, including surveys, in-depth interviews, competitive analysis, category deep dives and go-to-market strategy.

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