Canadian Housing Market Outlook 2026: A Strong First Quarter Gave Way to Five Months of Decline
Canadian housing starts ran 8.6% ahead of last year through March, then fell 9.1% across April to August. Across the first eight months the market is down 3.9%, and single-detached homes are down 6.5%.
Builders started 149,542 homes in Canadian centres of 10,000 or more over the first eight months of 2026, down 3.9% on the same period in 2025 and 0.3% on 2024.
Across the full year 2025 starts reached 241,171 units, up 5.9% on 2024. On the current pace 2026 finishes below that.
Canadian Housing Starts Fell 3.9% Over the First Eight Months of 2026
Starts totalled 149,542 units over the first eight months of 2026 against 155,658 over the same months of 2025, a fall of 6,116 units.
May 2025 at 23,879 units is the strongest month in the period and February 2025 at 14,420 the weakest. The seasonal pattern is consistent: January through March are always the quietest months and April through July the busiest.
The Year Reversed Sharply in April
The first quarter of 2026 was the strongest start to a year in the period. The five months that followed were all below last year.
January to March starts rose from 45,302 to 49,206, an increase of 8.6%. April to August fell from 110,356 to 100,336, a decline of 9.1%. July was the single worst month at 18.6% below last year.
Apartments Are Now 68.7% of Everything Canada Builds
Apartment and other multi-unit types accounted for 102,666 of the 149,542 starts over the first eight months of 2026. Multiples as a whole, which adds row and semi-detached units, accounted for 123,976 units or 82.9%.
Every dwelling type is down. Apartments fell least at 3.1% and single-detached most at 6.5%, which is why the apartment share of total starts rose from 67.2% in 2024 to 68.7% in 2026 even as apartment volumes declined.
Single-Detached Starts Are Down 7.5% in Two Years
Single-detached starts totalled 25,566 units over the first eight months of 2026, down 6.5% on 2025 and 7.5% on 2024. It is the only dwelling type below its level in both comparison years.
The divergence runs back further. Across the full year 2025, single-detached starts fell 5.7% to 41,851 units while apartment starts rose 10.3% to 164,898 and semi-detached rose 14.1%. Single-detached was the only type to decline in a year when total starts grew 5.9%.
Two different construction businesses. Apartment and single-detached starts respond to different things: one to rental economics, financing and municipal approvals at scale, the other to household formation and resale market conditions. A national starts figure blends them. At 68.7% apartments, the national number is now close to a measure of multi-unit development with a small detached correction attached.
Alberta and the Atlantic Provinces Fell Hardest
Four of seven regions recorded fewer starts over the first eight months of 2026 than over the same period in 2025.
Alberta fell 15.5%, the largest decline among the big four provinces and 5,593 units in absolute terms. It remains 2.5% above its 2024 level. British Columbia fell 9.7% and is 10.1% below 2024, the weakest two-year position of any region except Ontario.
Quebec is the standout on the longer view, up 41.1% against 2024 and still growing at 5.6%. Saskatchewan is up 64.1% in two years from a small base.
The Prairies are running against the national direction. Manitoba and Saskatchewan are the only regions growing at double digits in 2026, and both are well above their 2024 levels. Together they are 6.1% of national starts, so they do not move the national figure, but for anyone operating in those markets the national headline describes the wrong conditions entirely.
Ontario Is Up on Last Year and Down 21.4% on 2024
Ontario started 39,823 homes over the first eight months of 2026, 3.0% more than over the same months of 2025 and 21.4% fewer than over the same months of 2024
Across the full year 2025 Ontario starts fell 13.3%, from 72,118 units to 62,561. It was the only large province to decline in a year when national starts grew 5.9%.
Ontario is still the largest market at 26.6% of national starts, narrowly ahead of Quebec at 23.4%. Two years ago the gap was far wider. Ontario built 50,670 units over the first eight months of 2024 against Quebec's 24,831, a lead of more than 25,000 units. That lead is now under 5,000.
Where 2026 Finishes on Current Run Rate
Applying the January to August rate of -3.9% to the remainder of the year gives full-year 2026 starts of roughly 231,700 units, about 9,500 below 2025.
That would still leave 2026 above 2024, but it would end two consecutive years of growth. Single-detached starts would fall to roughly 39,200 units, their lowest level in the period.
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Frequently Asked Questions
How many housing starts were there in Canada in 2026?
Builders started 149,542 homes in Canadian centres of 10,000 or more over the first eight months of 2026, down 3.9% on the same period in 2025. On that run rate the full year would reach roughly 231,700 units, against 241,171 in 2025 and 227,697 in 2024.
Are housing starts falling in Canada?
Yes, since April. Starts ran 8.6% ahead of last year through March, then fell in each of the following five months: 2.5% in April, 7.2% in May, 13.0% in June, 18.6% in July and 2.3% in August. Across the first eight months the market is down 3.9%. Across the full year 2025 starts had grown 5.9%.
What type of housing is Canada building?
Mostly apartments. Apartment and other multi-unit types accounted for 102,666 of 149,542 starts over the first eight months of 2026, or 68.7%. Adding row and semi-detached units, multiples account for 82.9%. Single-detached homes are 17.1%, down from 18.4% over the same months of 2024.
Are single-detached home starts declining in Canada?
Yes, and for longer than the rest of the market. Single-detached starts fell 6.5% over the first eight months of 2026 to 25,566 units, and are 7.5% below their 2024 level. Across the full year 2025 they fell 5.7% while apartment starts rose 10.3% and total starts rose 5.9%, making single-detached the only dwelling type to decline that year.
Which province is building the most housing in Canada?
Ontario, with 39,823 starts over the first eight months of 2026 and 26.6% of the national total, narrowly ahead of Quebec at 35,030 and 23.4%. Alberta follows at 30,557 and British Columbia at 25,876. Two years ago Ontario's lead over Quebec was more than 25,000 units over the same period; it is now under 5,000.
Which provinces are growing and declining in 2026?
Manitoba leads at 20.9% growth, followed by Saskatchewan at 10.4%, Quebec at 5.6% and Ontario at 3.0%. Four regions declined: British Columbia at 9.7%, Alberta at 15.5% and the Atlantic provinces at 18.0%. On a two-year view Saskatchewan is up 64.1% and Quebec 41.1%, while Ontario is down 21.4% and British Columbia 10.1%.
About This Analysis
This analysis was produced by Bridging Local (RC Research & Insights Inc.), a Vancouver-based market research and business consulting firm. We run primary research across B2B and B2C markets, including surveys, in-depth interviews, competitive analysis, local market deep dives and go-to-market strategy.
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