Canada Supply Chain Survey 2026: 38.1% Expect Import Problems to Last a Year or More

Canadian businesses expect their supply chain obstacles to run long. Only 1.4% expect difficulties sourcing from abroad to clear within three months, and 48.0% expect them to last six months or longer.

Canadian businesses were asked in the third quarter of 2026 how long they expected their supply chain obstacles to continue. For difficulty acquiring inputs from abroad, 38.1% said twelve months or more. For inputs from within Canada, 31.4% said the same. For maintaining inventory levels, 29.0% did.

The short end of the scale is nearly empty on inputs. Only 5.6% expect domestic supply problems to resolve within three months. For imported inputs, 1.4% do.

Inventory is the exception. 18.5% expect inventory difficulties to clear within three months, more than three times the domestic input figure and thirteen times the imported input figure.

Figures in this article come from a national survey of Canadian businesses and organisations conducted in the third quarter of 2026.

How Long Canadian Businesses Expect Supply Chain Obstacles to Last

Three obstacles were surveyed separately: acquiring inputs from within Canada, acquiring inputs from abroad, and maintaining inventory levels.

Twelve months or more is the most commonly chosen duration for all three obstacles. On both input obstacles it outranks every shorter timeframe combined.

Imported Inputs Are Expected to Cause Problems for Longest

Imported inputs sit at the long end on every measure in the survey.

38.1% of businesses expect problems sourcing from abroad to last a year or more, 6.7 percentage points above the domestic figure of 31.4% and 9.1 points above inventory at 29.0%.

The gap widens at the short end. 1.4% expect imported input problems to clear within three months, against 5.6% for domestic inputs. Combining the two shortest brackets, 9.5% expect import difficulties to resolve inside six months, against 16.6% for domestic supply.

"Only 1.4% of businesses expect problems sourcing from abroad to clear within three months. Nearly half expect them to run six months or longer."

Inventory Is the Only Obstacle Businesses Expect to Clear Quickly

18.5% of businesses expect inventory problems to resolve within three months. That is 3.3 times the share saying the same about domestic inputs and 13.2 times the share saying it about imported inputs.

30.5% expect inventory difficulties to clear inside six months, against 16.6% for domestic inputs and 9.5% for imported inputs. Inventory carries the highest short-term expectations of the three obstacles by a wide margin.

It is also the obstacle most within a business's own control, since inventory depends on ordering policy and working capital rather than on a supplier or a border.

Importers and Exporters Expect Longer Disruption Than Domestic-Only Firms

Businesses engaged in international trade are far more likely to expect long-running problems, including with domestic supply.

Goods importers are 17.9 percentage points more likely than businesses with no international activity to expect domestic input problems lasting a year or more. Businesses importing services sit 27.6 points higher.

The pattern is worth separating from the obvious explanation. These figures describe expectations about domestic Canadian supply, not about cross-border supply. Businesses that trade internationally are reporting longer expected disruption inside Canada as well.

Retail Expects the Longest Domestic Supply Problems at 54.9%

Among industries with publishable estimates, retail trade reports the highest share expecting domestic input difficulties to last twelve months or more.

Retail sits 23.5 percentage points above the national figure of 31.4% and 19.9 points above the next industry. Construction and agriculture report the largest shares expecting resolution within three months, at 11.5% and 11.2%. Manufacturing and wholesale report the smallest, at 0.7% and 0.5%.

Manufacturing carries the longest combined horizon on domestic inputs once the six to twelve month bracket is included, at 56.4% expecting six months or more.

Manufacturing carries the longest expectations on imported inputs

Manufacturing reports 29.1% expecting imported input problems to last six to twelve months and 33.6% expecting twelve months or more, a combined 62.7%. Wholesale trade reports 35.3% at twelve months or more. Both estimates carry a use-with-caution flag.

Urban Businesses Expect Year-Long Domestic Disruption at 34.4%

34.4% of urban businesses expect domestic input difficulties to last twelve months or more, against 19.1% of rural businesses.

The two groups sit close together at the short end. 16.5% of urban businesses and 17.1% of rural businesses expect domestic input problems to clear within six months. The difference between them is concentrated in the longest bracket.

On inventory the pattern narrows further. 29.8% of urban businesses and 23.1% of rural businesses expect problems lasting twelve months or more, a gap of 6.7 points against 15.3 points on domestic inputs.

Newer Businesses Expect Faster Resolution

40.1% of businesses two years old or younger expect domestic input problems to clear within six months. Among businesses aged 11 to 20 years, 8.9% do.

The share expecting twelve months or more is broadly flat across age groups, between 26.8% and 34.1%. The variation sits almost entirely in the short brackets, where the newest businesses are more than four times as likely as those aged 11 to 20 to expect resolution inside six months.

Larger Firms Almost Never Expect Inventory Problems to Clear in 3 Months

Among businesses with 100 or more employees, 1.3% expected inventory difficulties to resolve within three months. Among businesses with 5 to 19 employees, 23.0% did.

The pattern runs cleanly across size bands. Businesses with fewer than 20 employees are far more likely to see a quick resolution on inventory. Those with 20 or more concentrate their answers in the six to twelve month and twelve month or more ranges.

Small firms hold less stock and turn it faster, so an inventory problem resolves or fails quickly. Larger firms plan inventory on longer replenishment cycles and against contracted supply, so their assessments run to longer horizons by construction.

Where This Data Stops and Custom Research Begins

A national survey tells you how many businesses expect a problem to persist. It does not tell you which problem, whose, or what it costs them.

The questions that follow usually need primary research. Which specific inputs are constrained in your category and where the alternatives are. What lead times and prices competitors are actually getting. Whether customers will accept substitution, longer waits or higher prices, and at what point they switch. What a supplier base looks like if you rebuild it domestically, and what that costs.

What we do at Bridging Local

We run custom research for businesses that need answers national datasets cannot provide. That means supplier and competitor mapping, interviews with buyers, distributors and procurement teams, surveys of the customer base you serve, pricing and willingness to pay studies, and market sizing built from the ground up rather than scaled down from national aggregates.

Frequently Asked Questions

How long do Canadian businesses expect supply chain problems to last in 2026?

Twelve months or more is the most commonly chosen answer for all three obstacles surveyed. 38.1% expect difficulty acquiring inputs from abroad to last a year or more, 31.4% say the same about inputs from within Canada and 29.0% about maintaining inventory levels. At the short end, 18.5% expect inventory problems to clear within three months, against 5.6% for domestic inputs and 1.4% for imported inputs.

Which supply chain problem is expected to last longest in Canada?

Difficulty acquiring inputs from abroad. 38.1% of businesses reporting that obstacle expect it to last twelve months or more and 48.0% expect six months or more, both the highest of the three obstacles. Only 1.4% expect imported input problems to clear within three months, compared with 5.6% for domestic inputs and 18.5% for inventory.

Which Canadian industries expect the longest supply chain disruption?

Retail trade reports the highest share expecting domestic input difficulties to last twelve months or more, at 54.9%, followed by accommodation and food services at 35.0%, manufacturing at 33.2% and construction at 28.8%. Agriculture reports the lowest at 12.0%. On imported inputs, manufacturing reports the longest combined horizon at 62.7% expecting six months or more.

Are importers more affected by supply chain problems in Canada?

They expect longer disruption. 44.9% of businesses that imported goods expected domestic input problems to last twelve months or more, against 27.0% of businesses with no international activity, a gap of 17.9 percentage points. Businesses importing services were higher still at 54.6% and goods exporters at 49.5%. These figures describe expectations about Canadian domestic supply, not cross-border supply.

Do rural and urban Canadian businesses expect different supply chain timelines?

Urban businesses are considerably more likely to expect year-long disruption. 34.4% expect domestic input problems to last twelve months or more, against 19.1% of rural businesses, a gap of 15.3 percentage points. At the short end the two groups are close, with 16.5% of urban and 17.1% of rural businesses expecting resolution within six months. On inventory the gap narrows to 6.7 points at the longest bracket.

Do small and large businesses expect different supply chain timelines?

Yes, particularly on inventory. 23.0% of businesses with 5 to 19 employees and 18.7% of those with 1 to 4 employees expected inventory problems to resolve within three months. Among businesses with 100 or more employees, 1.3% did. Larger firms concentrated their answers in the six to twelve month and twelve month or more ranges, which reflects longer replenishment and planning cycles as much as greater severity.

About This Analysis

This analysis was produced by Bridging Local (RC Research & Insights Inc.), a Vancouver-based market research and business consulting firm. We run primary research across B2B and B2C markets, including surveys, in-depth interviews, competitive analysis, category deep dives and go-to-market strategy.

If you are sizing a market, testing a concept, or working out where demand sits in your category, our market research services are built for exactly that.